The Joint Budget Committee received the June revenue forecast this morning. Both Legislative Council and Office of State Planning and Budgeting (OSPB) have increased their General Fund revenue estimates for FY17-18, FY18-19 and FY19-20.
Based on the Legislative Council Forecast, in FY19-20 the General Assembly will have $1.01 billion more to spend or save in the General Fund than previously budgeted for FY18-19. This amount will change if the General Assembly enacts changes that impact revenue or expenditures in FY18-19 or with changes in revenue expectations for any budget year between FY17-18 to FY19-20. The OSPB forecast was slightly lower than the Legislative Council forecast.
The growth in the forecast is a result of the excess reserve in FY18-19, projected revenue increases and smaller transfers from the General Fund than those budgeted for FY 2018-19. The increase in the severance tax projections from the March forecast is one of the transfers that contributed to the increases in the general fund revenue.
According to both forecasts TABOR revenue is projected to be below the cap for FY17-18 and FY18-19. They did note there is a possibility that revenues could trigger a Tabor refund in FY19-20 and FY20-21.
The US and Colorado economies continue to experience solid growth with expectations of continued expansion. However, despite the low risk for recession in the near term, labor shortages, rises in interests rates and changes in US trade policy have the potential to impact the Colorado economy adversely.
Links to the full forecast are below:
Office of Legislative Council
https://leg.colorado.gov/sites/default/files/june2018forecast.pdf
Office of State Planning and Budgeting
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_ihBacgr0ckHUK4-ZC93dnAUfWQa4Q40/view